Sunday, June 23, 2024

Derrick Max, Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy: June 23, 2024 Sunday Summary: Election Recap, VP Youngkin, Sen. Lucas' Flex, VMSDEP, Gambling, AG Miyares' Victories, Gilbert on EVs, LCPS Distrust, and more....


1.) The Good vs. McGuire slugfest in the 5th CD did not disappoint! With McGuire ahead by 333 votes, and likely headed for a recount, this race had the highest overall turnout of any Congressional primary in the state and the second highest in the history of Congressional primaries in Virginia. Dwayne Yancey at Cardinal News had ten great takeaways from Tuesday's results, including the irony of this race coming down to Nikki Haley voters, the fact that mail-in and early voting will play heavily in the outcome for two candidates skeptical of such voting, and the relative strength of Trump's endorsement. 


2.) The Democratic primary in the 10th CD turned out to be the ugliest of the day as last-minute sexual assault allegations against frontrunner State Sen. Dan Helmer were likely the difference in the close win by State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam. Even the New York Times noted the brutality of this race. As I wrote last week, the Democrats have a lot to answer for in how these allegations were (not) handled over the years and how they were used as a last-minute surprise against a popular front-runner…


3.) With Sen. Kaine and Capt. Hung Cao now their party's respective nominees for the Senate, a heated race is already underway. Cao is calling out Sen. Kaine's failures on immigration while highlighting his own immigration from Vietnam. Sen. Kaine is attacking Cao as a MAGA Republican who wants to repeal the right to abortion. If Trump performs well in Virginia, this race could be very interesting.  Despite an unwise slight against the more rural parts of Virginia, Cao won big in Southwest Virginia anyway. He will need to do well in these areas come November.


4.) A less flattering profile of Governor Youngkin appeared in Politico this week. While discussing his clear "likability," his true faith, and his strong policy chops, the article puts more weight into his political blunders (stadium and midterms). In light of the deeper National Review profile I discussed last week, one comes away with a picture of our Governor as a man with deeply held conservative beliefs who stumbled early but got his footing quickly. This reminds me of another great President who stumbled early as the Governor of a much larger state out west, but who got his footing in time to get reelected and do great things in his second term (something not afforded Governor Youngkin) and then went on to be one of our greatest Presidents. Is there an alternate path for Governor Youngkin?


5.) Governor Youngkin remains a dark horse choice for President Trump's VP. The Hill reports that Youngkin will join Trump for a rally in Virginia after the first presidential debate, a sign of Youngkin's growing consideration. USA Today noted Youngkin's place on the VP radar, despite his MAGA detractors. 


6.) Sen. Louise Lucas flexed her muscle against …well... everyone this week. The General Assembly returned to Richmond Tuesday to "fix" changes they had made to the Virginia Military Survivors and Dependents Education Program (VMSDEP) to control its costs. The changes have caused an uproar in the military community as eligibility for the program was severely curtailed in the recently passed budget. Even though there was bipartisan agreement on how to reverse and repeal the changes to the program, Senator Lucas, by all accounts, wanted legislation on Skills Games passed first. Using her power as the Chair of the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee, Sen. Lucas announced that no legislation would be considered that day. Kayla Owen of the VMSDEP Friends explained the issue best in Bacon's Rebellion. For a deeper dive into how this program has grown and why it was being changed, read Steve Haner's insights on this "free" tuition program. The House of Delegates is due back next week to take its stab at a "fix."


7.) Despite the fact that callers to the gambling addiction hotline in Virginia have increased by 973 percent over the last four years, and despite evidence that 50 percent of gambling addicts consider suicide, gambling is likely to expand further in the Commonwealth as skill game legislation is likely to pass during a special session. The questions remaining seem to be will the legislation approve 30,000 or 35,000 machines (both ridiculously high numbers), whether localities will be allowed to hold a referendum on restricting the games in their area, and how will the games be taxed and regulated. The Thomas Jefferson Institute remains opposed to predatory and regressive skills games in the Commonwealth.  


8.) A big win for Attorney General Jason Miyares as his office negotiated a $1.3 million settlement ($600k in deposits and $700k in penalties) against the Washington Commanders for their mishandling of funds to reserve season tickets by the former Snyder ownership group.


9.) Another big win for AG Miyares in a judgment blocking Title IX rules from going into effect in Virginia (and five other states) that would have greatly expanded the scope of Title IX -- specifically this expansion would have allowed biological men identifying as women to compete in women's sports in the Commonwealth. 

 

10.) Finally, AG Miyares has established a new center to fight elder abuse in central Virginia. The center will streamline collaboration between law enforcement agencies, connect investigators with medical and financial experts, and provide resources to elder victims.  Elder abuse is a growing problem in the Commonwealth.


11.) After turning off cameras during parent and community comment sessions at school board meetings, the Loudoun County School Board is now considering restricting criticism of Loudoun County Public Schools by school board aides and staff. While surely to be challenged legally, these policies just feed public distrust.


12.) Speaking of mistrust, the Virginia Board of Education is taking up changes to the school accountability system as Governor Youngkin and many others believe the current system does not give an accurate representation of the performance (or non-performance) of our public schools. A good review of the decline in Virginia's standards and its impact on our accreditation system was written by Thomas Jefferson Institute's Chris Braunlich.


13.) Rep. Todd Gilbert, the House Minority Leader, wrote a great defense of Gov. Youngkin and AG Miyares' move to delink Virginia from California's Clean Car Program -- a program that would have eventually banned the sale of new gas-powered cars in the Commonwealth. Gilbert's position is one Thomas Jefferson Institute's Steve Haner has long advocated.  


14.) The recently approved Mountain Valley Pipeline began pumping natural gas this week, which is good news for energy reliability and availability in the Commonwealth.  


15.) Governor Youngkin gave an inspiring and full-throated endorsement of President Trump at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference on Saturday. This is a great and inspiring speech that makes me wish Governor Youngkin were at the top of the ticket…enjoy! (The volume is low, so turn up the volume on your device)