Trump Picks A Rust BeltRunning MateWG Discussion Points | David WinstonJuly 19, 2024President Trump's selection of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate is a clear indication that he's going all in on recreating his 2016 Rust Belt coalition. Comparing 2012 to 2016 election results, the movement of blue collar, working class voters was key to Trump's success in the 2016 election. These groups included union households, those making $50,000 or less, voters with an associated degree or had attended some college, and those that had a high school diploma or less. |
Based on 2016 Edison Research exit polls, among union households that Romney lost by 18, Trump cut that margin in half and lost by only 9. Among those making under $50,000 a year, the margin went from -22 to -12. The margin for those who had an associates degree or attended some college went from -1 to +8. Finally, among those that had a high school diploma or less, the margin went from -6 to +5. The obvious item to note about these groups is that they are potentially new additions to the Republican Party. |
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